August 13 Weekly Update

In Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA estimated yield for this year’s corn crop at a record high 178.4 bushels per acre. The USDA raised its forecast for corn supplies, corn usage and corn exports. But the net effect is that 2018/19 corn ending stocks were revised 8.5% higher to 1.68B bushels and the projected 2018/19 corn price was cut from $3.80 to $3.60 per bushel. The USDA also reduced 2018/19 soymeal prices from $335 to $315 per short ton. More tariff-restricted soybeans will lead to higher domestic crush rates. Lower feed prices – combined with strong export sales – bode well for poultry profits and production prospects. Broiler exports in June were up 8.1% from a year ago and 1st half 2018 exports were 2.4% ahead of last year. The USDA revised 2018 broiler output from 2.0 to 2.3% above a year ago, with an additional 1.9% jump projected for 2019.