August 14 Weekly Update

8/14 – Last week’s USDA WASDE report was bearish for grain prices with supplies of corn, wheat and soybeans all above expectations. The U.S. corn crop suffered a hot, dry July during pollination and only 60% of the crop rated good-to-excellent vs. 74% a year ago. Even so, the USDA estimated 2017/18 U.S. corn output at 14.15B bushels, down 7% from a year ago but still the 3rd largest crop on record. USDA left its 2017/18 corn price forecast unchanged at $3.30 per bushel, down from $3.35 for 2016/17. In wheat, global supplies are up but in the U.S. high protein spring wheat and durum supplies – used for bread, pizza, bagels, pasta – are off significantly from a year ago. The USDA’s all wheat price forecast for 2017/18 is $4.80 per bushel vs $3.89 for 2016/17, but Minneapolis spring wheat is at a $2.20 per bushel premium over the Chicago and Kansas City markets.