March 19, 2018

March 19 Weekly Summary

3/19 - Coffee futures, which hit highs of $1.74/lb last fall, are currently near rock bottom at $1.17 per pound. But things could get interesting soon. A number of key forecasters have reduced their projections for this year’s Brazilian harvest. Brazil’s IBGE statistics institute cut its arabica forecast by 500,000

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February 28, 2018

February 26 Weekly Update

2/26 – In Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, the USDA said new placements onto feedlots in Jan were 4.4% above a year ago. That follows 8.3% average monthly increases for Oct-Nov-Dec 2017. Total feedlot inventories on Feb 1 were 11.63M head, 7.9% higher than last year. Higher than expected placements

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February 12, 2018

February 12 Weekly Update

2/12 - In last week’s WASDE report, the USDA reduced both domestic and global 2017/18 corn ending stocks due to improved U.S. price competitiveness and lower exports/availability from Argentina and Ukraine. The USDA’s 2017/18 corn price forecast was increased from $3.30 to $3.35/bu, a level that should still encourage increases

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January 22, 2018

January 22 Weekly Update

1/22 – Ground beef prices are a wildcard for 2018. For beef 50s, large cattle slaughter numbers should lead to a supply increase. For lean 90s, domestic cow slaughter will run as high as 4-5% above year ago in Q1 before declining seasonally into the spring and early summer. Cattle

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January 8, 2018

January 8 Weekly Update

01/08 – We enter 2018 with abundant protein supplies. Combined beef, pork and poultry in cold storage on Dec 1st totaled 2.179B lbs, 4.9% above a year ago. Beef production was up 4.3% in 2017 with another (projected) 4.9% coming in 2018. Pork output was up 2.5% in 2017, with

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January 2, 2018

January 1 Weekly Update

01/01 – Two USDA reports issued on Dec 22 confirmed large meat supplies for the 1st half of 2018. The USDA said new cattle placements onto feedlots in Nov were 14% above a year ago. That pushed total feedlot inventories on Dec 1 to 11.5M head, up 8% from last

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January 2, 2018

December 25 Weekly Update

12/25 – ‘Twas the night before Christmas and all through the White House, not a creature was stirring, not even the Twitter mouse. The stockings were hung by the chimney with care, in hopes that tax savings soon would be there. The Donald was nestled all snug in his bed,

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December 19, 2017

December 18 Weekly Update

12/18 – In last week’s WASDE report, the USDA made minor changes to domestic and world grain numbers. For 2017/18, corn ending stocks were lower due to a 50M bushel increase in corn use for ethanol, but USDA’s corn price forecast was unchanged at $3.20 per bushel. Corn futures at

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December 4, 2017

December 4 Weekly Update

12/4 – The USDA is forecasting very mediocre 1.9% increases in broiler production for both 2017 and 2018. But so far, that’s been more than enough output to build supplies. Total chicken inventories in cold storage on Oct 1st were 11.7% above a year ago and 20.4% higher than the

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November 27, 2017

November 27 Weekly Update

11/27 – Dairy is looming as one of the more difficult commodity areas to forecast and contract for 2018. Milk production was on the slow side again in Oct, up 1.4% from a year ago following a slim 1.1% gain in Sept. Dairy herd numbers declined for the 2nd straight

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