October 1 Weekly Update

10/1 – Friday’s USDA Quarterly Hogs && Pigs Report set the stage for record large pork supplies in 2019. The total Sept 1 hog inventory at 75.5M head was up 3.0% from a year ago. The market hog inventory was record large at 69.2M head. The breeding herd (6.3M) was up 3.5%. The summer pig crop was record large at 34.2M, up 3.3%. Summer farrowings were 2.5% above a year ago and the number of pigs per litter were record-high at 10.72. Fall farrowings are projected up 1.5%, and winter farrowings up 2.0%. It all points to 2019 pork production increases of 3.5-to-4.0%. That means it will be critical for producers to maintain or increase exports levels to clear excess supply. We current export roughly 22% of our pork output, and need Mexico to take of 6 percentage points of that 22% and for China to take 3. Both of those customers are in flux due to trade situations.