June 18 Weekly Update

6/18 – In last week’s WASDE report, the USDA reduced 2017/2018 corn ending stocks to a 4-year low of 1.57B bushels, mostly due to a higher export forecast. This year’s U.S. corn crop looks good so far. Corn emergence is 94% complete and corn condition ratings are 77% good-to-excellent compared to just 67% at this time last year. Corn prices, which had surged to $4.08 per bushel on 5/23, closed at $3.61 this past Friday. The USDA again reduced its beef production forecast. In Jan, the USDA had projected 27.28B pounds of beef for 2018, up 5.4% from 2017. That projection is now down to 27.12B and just a 3.3% increase. 642M pounds have vanished from the USDA’s forecast. Even so, there is still plenty of beef. Cattle prices have dropped from highs of $130.30/cwt in Feb to $108.45 on Friday. Second-half 2018 cattle futures are averaging $107.72/cwt.