January 14, 2019

January 14 Weekly Update

1/14 – The U.S. economy was humming in 2018. Employers added 220,000 jobs/month (on average) in 2018, well above 2017’s 182,000 monthly pace. But the outlook for 2019 is not nearly as rosy. A Wall Street Journal survey of 73 economists in early January showed a consensus forecast for an

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January 8, 2019

January 7 Weekly Update

01/07 – From a commodity standpoint, the U.S. government shutdown is a minor disaster. Unlike the 2013 shutdown, USDA AMS Market News is now an “essential” service – so we will still have access to all USDA meat, poultry and dairy markets quoted in this report. What we will not

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January 3, 2019

December 31 Weekly Update

12/31 – Supply numbers for the Dec (quarterly) USDA Hogs && Pigs Report came in lower than expected. Total hog inventories at 74.6M head were up 1.9% from a year ago but well below analysts’ expectations of 2.5-to-3.0%. Hogs coming to market from Dec-to-May were also up 1.9%. Breeding inventory,

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December 26, 2018

December 24 Weekly Update

12/24 - ‘Twas the night before Christmas and all through the White House, not a creature was stirring, not even the Twitter mouse. The stockings were hung by the chimney with care, by federal workers who soon won’t be there. The Donald was nestled all snug in his bed, but

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December 18, 2018

December 17 Weekly Update

12/17 – What’s in store for the economy in 2019? Last week, The Wall Street Journal published a survey of 60 business, financial and academic economists that was conducted Dec 7-11. The economists’ consensus is for 3.0% GDP growth in 2018, 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. Nearly half

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December 11, 2018

December 10 Weekly Update

12/10 – The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price, the U.S. benchmark, peaked at a 4-yr high of $76.41 per barrel on Oct 3, and has since plummeted by 31% to close at $52.61 on Friday (12/7). Not too long ago, when the U.S. was a massive net oil

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December 11, 2018

December 3 Weekly Update

12/03 – While the trade war between the U.S and China is far from over, truce has been reached. All current tariffs remain in place, but both sides agreed to not escalate further. After Saturday’s dinner meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the “Group of 20

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November 13, 2018

November 12 Weekly Update

11/12 - In Thursday’s WASDE report, the USDA cut 2018/19 U.S. corn production from 14.78B to 14.63B bushels, and also cut projected 2018/19 corn ending stocks by 77M bushels to a 3-year low of 1.736B. The USDA confirmed China’s 10-year census “readjustment” of their corn supplies (upward) by 5.8B bushels.

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October 22, 2018

October 22 Weekly Update

10/22 – In Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, the USDA said new placements onto feedlots in Sept were down 4.6% vs. Sept 2017. However, the Oct 1st feedlot inventory at 11.4M head was still 5.2% above a year ago and the highest 10/1 inventory on record. Of note was an

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October 8, 2018

October 8 Weekly Update

10/8 – Chicken supplies are large and prices are cheap. Aug broiler production was record large with average liveweights hitting a 2018 monthly high of 6.28 lbs vs 6.18 a year ago. Flock damage from Hurricane Florence will likely be a temporary production setback in Sept before output recovers again

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