October 8 Weekly Update

10/8 – Chicken supplies are large and prices are cheap. Aug broiler production was record large with average liveweights hitting a 2018 monthly high of 6.28 lbs vs 6.18 a year ago. Flock damage from Hurricane Florence will likely be a temporary production setback in Sept before output recovers again in Oct. The USDA is currently forecasting broiler production to increase by 2.3% in 2018 and add another 1.9% in 2019, fueled by cheap feed prices. Those forecasts could be tweaked higher in coming months. USDA weighted average boneless skinless breast prices at $.90/lb appear to be at a market bottom, but we’re not likely to see prices back over $1.00 until Jan. Leg quarters ($.30) and BS thighs ($1.17) look steady through year’s end. Wings at $1.46 are on the rise seasonally. Look for wings to average in the $1.60s for Q4 and hit highs on the $1.80s in late Jan.