August 8

8/8 – Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI or Avian Flu) may finally have run its course this year, with no new cases over the past 2 weeks. But the damage has been devastating. By our calculations (so far in 2022) HPAI has resulted in the culling of 30.8M egg layers, 5.4M turkeys, and 2.4M broilers. Throw in pullets, turkey layers, and other species, and the U.S. lost 40M birds this year. In July’s WASDE, the USDA projected turkey production would decline by 3.6% in 2022, egg output was projected to be 2.0% lower this year, while broilers will still manage to eke out a 0.8% production gain. In July, the USDA forecasted 2022 whole turkey prices to average $1.48 per pound in 2022, up 20.4% from 2021. That marks the 3rd straight year of double-digit percentage increases. NY large eggs are projected to average $2.11 per dozen in 2022, up 79% from a $1.18 average in 2021.