May 5

5/5 - While rumors swirl of potential negotiations between the U.S. and China, for now, 145% tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place. Can the U.S. survive without China? Eighty container ships were cancelled in April. Those are Covid era numbers. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach expect one-third fewer arrivals in May vs. a year ago. If tariffs continue, by June there will be significant layoffs in the trucking industry; by July, retailers’ shelves will be sparse; and before the end of summer, bankruptcies will start to mount. In addition to truckers - toy stores, hardware stores, and clothing retailers will take the first big hits. Home Depot will be a ghost town. Most U.S. firms are revising down profit expectations, placing fewer new orders, and holding off on capital investments. Q1 U.S. GDP came in at -0.3%; consumer confidence is at a 5-year low; CEO confidence is at a 15-year low. The threat of recession grows by the day.