October 21

10/21 – On Oct 10, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service released its semi-annual projection of global livestock and poultry production. The USDA is now estimating that China’s ASF-decimated sow breeding herd will be 26M head on Jan 1, 2020, down 30% from Jan 1, 2019 and 40% below Jan 1, 2018. Chinese losses will reduce global pork production by 6% in 2019 and another 10% in 2020. Global pork exports will be up 11% in 2019 and jump another 10% in 2020 as the world tries to fill China’s protein gap. China has also become (by far) the world top beef importer, buying an estimated 2.4M metric tons in 2019 – 1M higher than in 2018 – and jumping to 2.9M in 2020. China’s chicken imports will soar by 83% in 2019 and rise an addition 20% in 2020. China’s needs in 2020 will challenge world production capabilities and pressure all protein prices higher.