In Friday’s WASDE, the USDA called for smaller corn supplies and reduced ending stocks. Corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are 18.5% below a year ago, and the stocks-to-use ratio has tightened to just 9.7%. Tighter supplies have lit a fire under corn prices.

U.S. consumers have been lucky with fuel prices this year. Several Middle East truces, a sharp reduction in Chinese oil imports, and a generous pull from U.S. oil reserves have helped keep energy prices tame for most of the year. But the on-again, off-again war is on again, and the U.S. naval blockade of the Persian Gulf continues.

Two stats released last week should give business planners reason for pause. The first was the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which was 3.7% for July – far exceeding the 2% inflation target. Secondly, the U.S. federal debt level hit $40 trillion – up a staggering 73.9% from $23T in 2019.

In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Aug 1st were 11.12M head, up 1.8% from a year ago. However, new placements onto feedlots in July were 11.0% below last year, and cattle marketings were down 7.4%. It’s a continuing saga of less available cattle and fewer cattle sold.