Two stats released last week should give business planners reason for pause. The first was the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which was 3.7% for July – far exceeding the 2% inflation target. Secondly, the U.S. federal debt level hit $40 trillion – up a staggering 73.9% from $23T in 2019.

In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Aug 1st were 11.12M head, up 1.8% from a year ago. However, new placements onto feedlots in July were 11.0% below last year, and cattle marketings were down 7.4%. It’s a continuing saga of less available cattle and fewer cattle sold.

Last week’s CPI report finally provided a little relief. July’s Consumer Price Index was up just 0.1% from June and is 3.4% above a year ago. Gasoline prices, while down 2.1% from June, are still 24.6% above a year ago, and fuel oil (home heating oil and the same distillate as diesel) is up 39.1%.

Friday’s jobs report was a shocker. The U.S. lost a net 23,000 jobs in July – and employment numbers for May and June were revised lower. The economy has averaged 60,500 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-July).