Last week’s Crop Production report shocked the corn market. The USDA said that U.S. farmers planted 90.0M acres of corn this year, down from last month’s 91.7M forecast. But traders had expected big, flood-driven losses in the 3M-6M acre range.

In the August Dairy Products Report, the USDA said total cheese output was up 0.6% (from a year ago) in June and that YTD production is up 0.8%. However, cheddar output is down 2.8% YTD. Since block cheddar is what’s used to settle contracts at the CME, cheese “market” prices are likely to remain well supported through year’s end.

Last week, Rabobank released a report saying that China’s ASF-ravaged hog herd is down 40% from a year ago. Rabobank’s numbers are supported by a Reuters survey of suppliers to Chinese farms. Producers of vaccines, feed additives and genetics also estimated losses at 40-50%, based on falling sales for their products and local knowledge of the extent of the disease.

In July’s Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook, the USDA said total red meat and poultry output in the first half (H1) of 2019 was 1.3% above that of a year ago. Beef output was up just 0.2% in H1. More heifers in the slaughter mix (up 7.2% in H1) helped pull down slaughter weights and indicates that the cattle expansion cycle is ending.