Last week the President said that his administration had “worked our magic” and struck a deal to bring down beef prices. We can only hope that this involves tariff reductions and/or quota increases on imported beef, particularly 90s lean beef trimmings from Brazil that are currently subject to a 76% levy.

Despite the government shutdown, the USDA and the Energy Information Administration are still pumping out info. In last week’s Short Term Energy Report, the EIA forecast WTI crude oil prices will drop from an average of $76.60 per barrel in 2024, to $65.00 in 2025 and $49.00 in 2026.

The current U.S. government shutdown (that began on Oct 1) has resulted in the suspension or delay of many regular USDA pricing and survey reports. Market-sensitive reports and key statistical releases from agencies like the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Economic Research Service (ERS), and others are specifically affected, as non-essential staff are furloughed and data collection operations are paused.

In its quarterly report (9/25), the USDA said hog and pig inventories on Sept 1st (74.5M head) were up 1.0% from last quarter (June 1) but 1.3% from below a year ago. Market-hog numbers were down 1.4% from last year and the breeding herd was 1.8% lower. Farrowing intentions for the next half-year (Dec- May) are down 2.9%.