Shell egg prices (USDA, Northeast, large), which averaged record highs of $8.26/dozen for the month of February last year, have dropped to 7-year lows of $.68/dozen. But, winter has arrived, wild birds are migrating, and avian flu (HPAI) could again rear its ugly head.

Friday’s jobs report brought some good news: the unemployment rate dropped from 4.5% (revised) to 4.4%. The bad news: the U.S. economy added just 50,000 net new jobs in Dec. In 2025, we averaged just 59,000 net new jobs per month.

In its quarterly report, the USDA said that hog and pig inventories on Dec 1 (75.55M head) were 0.6% higher than a year ago and slightly above last quarter (+0.3%). An 0.8% increase (year-over-year) in market hogs and a 0.9% decrease in the breeding herd were both above expectations and modestly bearish for prices.

The U.S. cattle supply just keeps going from bad to worse. In December’s cattle report (12/19/25), the USDA said feedlot inventories on Dec 1st were 11.73M head, 2.1% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in November were down 11.2%.