March 2

3/2 – Amidst the usual commodity doom and gloom, coffee could be a bright spot. Coffee futures prices (ICE Exchange) were $2.93/lb when 50% tariffs were imposed on Brazil in Aug 2025. That sent coffee soaring to a record-high of $4.32 by Nov. But since that tariff was rescinded (in late Nov), prices have dropped back to pre-tariff levels ($2.84/lb on 2/27). Brazil’s government stats agency CONAB forecast the 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop to be up 17.1% from a year earlier, reaching 66.2M bags - with arabica production at 44.1M bags (up 20.0%). But don’t get your hopes up. An exec order for a new 15% universal tariff threatens to push prices back above $3.00/lb. The CPI for coffee (retail) in Jan was 18.3% above a year ago. In foodservice, year-over-year price increases are in the 7-to-10% range. And, once menu prices go up, they rarely come down – especially with the restaurant industry playing catch-up on labor costs.