May 13

5/13 – In Friday’s WASDE, the USDA released its first projections for next year. The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower exports, and larger stocks. Wheat prices for 2019/20 are projected at $4.70/bu - down 9.6% from $5.20 for 2018/19. Despite severe Midwest flooding, U.S. corn supplies (so far) are also forecast higher. A projected 2019/20 stocks-to-use ratio of 16.9% would be the highest since 2005/06. The USDA forecast 2019/20 corn at $3.30/bu, down from $3.50 in 2018/19 and the lowest since 2006/07. The biggest price adjustment was to hog prices, where the USDA increased its 2019 forecast by 18.5% to $54.50/cwt and pegged 2020 even higher at $60.00/cwt. Expect further increase if China’s ASF problem isn’t corralled soon. See a summary of the 2020 USDA projections in our (free) forecast report:

Sheena Levi