June 17

6/17 - Record rainfall has delayed planting almost beyond hope this year. As of 6/10, only 83% of the corn crop was planted, compared to 99% a year ago and a 5-year average of 99%. Five-to-nine million acres of corn could go unplanted this year. That would represent a 6-to-10% drop in corn acres vs. planting intentions. In last week’s WASDE, the USDA cut its corn-production estimate by an unprecedented 9% to 13.68B bushels. The USDA also raised its 2019/20 corn price forecast from $3.30 to $3.80 per bushel; soybeans from $8.10 to $8.25; wheat from $4.70 to $5.10. Grain prices are on fire. Since 5/10, corn futures have jumped 32% from $3.42 to $4.53 per bushel; soybeans 13% from $7.91 to $8.96; wheat 28% from $4.19 to $5.38. This year’s Midwest flooding looks to be the biggest price-moving event for grain and oilseed markets since the drought of 2012.

Sheena Levi