June 3

6/3 – Record rainfall has delayed planting almost beyond hope this year. Last week’s crop progress report was more of the same. The corn crop is 58% planted vs. 90% last year and a 5-yr average of 90%. Soybeans are 29% planted vs. 74% a year ago. With the calendar turning to June, farmers are out of time. Planting corn at this late date will likely result in lost yield potential of 50 bushels per acre or more. Agricultural economists estimate that 6-to-10M acres of corn could go unplanted this year. That would represent a 7-to-11% drop in corn acres vs. planting intentions. Grain markets have finally gotten the message. In a little over 2 weeks, corn futures have jumped from $3.42 to $4.27 per bushel; soybeans from $7.91 to $8.77; wheat from $4.19 to $5.03. We are likely looking at the biggest price-moving event for grain and oilseed markets since the drought of 2012.

Sheena Levi