September 16

9/16 - In Thursday’s WASDE report, USDA crop estimates got a little closer to what private analysts were anticipating following spring floods in the Midwest. Corn output for 2019/20 was revised downward, from 13.9B bushels (Aug) to 13.8B, while average private trade estimates have increased from 13.1 to 13.5B. Corn futures, which hit highs of $4.54 on 7/12, fell to $3.40 (9/9) before recovering post-report to $3.55 on Friday (9/13). In the post-Tyson-fire cattle world, futures prices dropped to a 9-year low of $94.20/cwt on 9/9 before rebounding to $98.08 on Friday (9/13). The sharp drop in the futures and cash markets for cattle caused the USDA to revise their cattle price forecast from $116.50 to $113.50/cwt for 2019, and from $119.00 to $115.00/cwt for 2020. The USDA also lowered its estimate for 2019 beef production to just 0.3% above 2018 levels.

Sheena Levi