September 3

9/3 – In the August Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook, the USDA again reduced 2019 milk output to just 0.1% above a year ago. Steadily declining dairy cow numbers have been mostly offset by increases in milk yield per cow. In the Aug 22 cold storage report, the USDA said Aug 1st butter supplies were 1.1% higher than July  and 3.6% above a year ago. That indicates weaker summer demand and is bearish for prices. Butter prices, which hit $2.43/lb in mid-July, have declined to $2.19. Even so, 2nd half 2019 butter looks to average $.12/lb above a year ago. Cheese stocks in July fell 1.3% from the prior month and were 3.5% below a year ago – at a time of year when supplies usually recover. Block cheese prices hit a 3-year high of $1.93/lb on Friday (8/30). Average 2nd-half 2019 block prices look to exceed $1.80/lb and be as much as $.30/lb above year ago levels.

Sheena Levi