October 13

10/13 - Despite the government shutdown, the USDA and the Energy Information Administration are still pumping out info. In last week’s Short Term Energy Report, the EIA forecast WTI crude oil prices will drop from an average of $76.60 per barrel in 2024, to $65.00 in 2025 and $49.00 in 2026. Increased output from OPEC is colliding with a global economic slowdown and softening demand. China, the world’s largest oil importer, is transitioning to EVs and hybrids. The EIA projected that U.S. gasoline prices, which averaged $3.30 per gallon in 2024, will drop to $3.10, on average, in 2025 and $2.90 in 2026. The EIA says EVs, hybrids, and higher mileage cars are helping reduce gasoline demand. U.S. refinery capacity remains constrained at 18.4M barrels per day (bpd), down from 19M pre-pandemic. Excess U.S. oil is headed out of the country.  U.S. crude oil exports have grown from zero to over 4M bpd in the past 8 years.