December 29

12/29 – The U.S. cattle supply just keeps going from bad to worse. In December’s cattle report (12/19/25), the USDA said feedlot inventories on Dec 1st were 11.73M head, 2.1% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in November were down 11.2%. The biggest issue continues to be the lack of Mexican feeder cattle imports, which have been banned since Nov 2024 due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease. Mexico accounted for 4% of our beef cows in 2024, and the import ban has left the U.S. short over a million feeders in 2025. In December’s WASDE, the USDA projected a 3.8% drop in beef production in 2025, followed by an additional 0.9% decline in 2026. Year-to-date, a 6.7% drop in cattle slaughter is being partially offset by a 3% gain in dressed weight. USDA projects cattle prices to average $223.97/cwt in 2025 and $235.00 in 2026, shattering the previous record-high of $187.12/cwt in 2024.