February 3

2/3 - On Saturday, Feb 1, President Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports. The most immediate effect on the restaurant industry, particularly at this time of year, will be on fruits and vegetables. The U.S. imported an estimated $22B+ in produce from Mexico last year. Tomatoes, avocados, cucumbers (pickles), jalapenos, bell peppers, and limes could present some of the biggest immediate cost issues. On the protein side, the U.S. is a big importer of Mexican feeder cattle, but those had already been halted on 11/25/24 due to “new world screwworm”. As a result, the U.S. is short roughly 300,000 feeder imports. Regarding pork, Canada sent 5M+ feeder pigs to U.S. pork producers (duty free) in 2024. Conversely, Mexico bought roughly 10% of all U.S. pork output in 2024. Loss of Mexican pork exports more than offset Canadian pig imports and the net effect will likely be weaker prices on certain pork product categories.