May 19

5/19 – Last week’s WASDE report gave the USDA’s first look at 2026. Least surprising was that beef output is headed lower, with a 2.1% drop this year and another 4.8% decline in 2026. Cattle prices are projected to average $214.51/cwt in 2025 and $223.00 in 2026, up from an already record-high $187.12/cwt in 2024. The good news: USDA called for a record-large corn crop in 2025/26 at 15.8B bushels, up 6% from 2024/25. The all-important stocks-to-use ratio is projected to increase from 9.3% in 2024/25 to 11.6% in 2025/26. As a result, USDA is projecting 2025/26 corn prices at $4.20 per bushel, down from $4.35 in 2024/25. But that won’t be enough to constrain chicken prices. USDA forecasts whole broiler prices at $133.20/cwt in 2025 and $135.00 in 2026, up from $129.40 in 2024. USDA said broiler output, which was up 1.3% in 2024, will be limited to 1.1% and 1.2% gains, respectively, for 2025 and 2026.