June 2

6/2 - The chicken vs. burger dilemma that has been ongoing in QSR for a few years now is likely to intensify this year and next. As milk production begins to expand, there will be fewer slaughter cows and a potentially tighter supply of domestic 90s lean beef trimmings. A 10% tariff on Australian beef 90s further adds to ground beef cost - which is showing no signs of declining over the next 2-to-3 years. The QSR answer has been chicken and more chicken. But the poultry industry is also struggling to ramp up production. The USDA said 2024 broiler output was up 1.3% and projected just 1.1% and 1.2% gains, respectively, for 2025 and 2026. The one saving grace has been large-bird breast meat. USDA jumbo boneless skinless breast at $2.77/lb has likely hit its seasonal high and looks to trend lower through summer. Conversely, ground beef still needs to get past Father’s Day (6/15) and July 4th before we see any seasonal price relief.