June 23

6/23 - In Friday’s monthly cattle report, USDA said feedlot inventories on June 1st were 11.44M head, down 1.2% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in May were down 7.8%. In May, the USDA (again) shut down the southern border to Mexican cattle imports due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease. Mexico accounted for 4% of our 28M beef cows in 2024 and the import ban has (so far) left the U.S. short roughly 600,000 feeders. In May, Texas placements were down 17% and Oklahoma down 22% - reflecting the Mexican import ban. In last week’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, the USDA projected a 2.3% drop in beef output for 2025, followed by an additional 4.1% decline in 2026. USDA projects cattle prices to average $221.51/cwt in 2025 and $228.50 in 2026, up from a previous record-high $187.12/cwt in 2024. Cattle futures, at $223.02/cwt on Friday (6/20), were 19.2% above a year ago.