January 19

1/19 - Shell egg prices (USDA, Northeast, large), which averaged record highs of $8.26/dozen for the month of February last year, have dropped to 7-year lows of $.68/dozen. But, winter has arrived, wild birds are migrating, and avian flu (HPAI) could again rear its ugly head. There has been no magic cure or vaccination yet. In 2024, there were no HPAI outbreaks from July to Oct – then all hell broke loose from Nov 2024 through May 2025. We lost 20% of the egg-laying flock last season. This season, there have been just 5 outbreaks (through Jan 16) totaling 5.8M table egg layers (1.9% of total). In last week’s WASDE, the USDA cut its 2026 egg price forecast from $1.95 to $1.20 per dozen, down from $3.84 in 2025. I believe the best forecast model for egg prices this year is to just keep your fingers crossed. It will be only by pure luck, or the grace of God, that we get through the first half of 2026 unscathed by HPAI and higher egg prices.