March 30

3/30 - In its quarterly report, the USDA said that all hog and pig inventories in the U.S. on March 1st (74.3M head) were 0.4% higher than a year ago but 1.5% below last quarter (Dec 1). A 0.6% increase (year-over-year) in market hogs and a 2.1% jump in pigs per litter, offset by a 1.5% decrease in the breeding herd, should combine to be generally neutral for prices. Farrowing intentions through August are below a year ago and could contribute to tighter supplies in the 2nd half of 2026. In March’s WASDE, the USDA said U.S. pork output declined by 0.8% in 2025. The 2026 production forecast was increased from 0 to 2.5% above 2025 - but that will be partially offset by a jump in exports from 2.2% to 3.1%. Lean hog futures averaged $84.95/cwt in 2024 and $92.15 in 2025 (+8.5%). Forward futures contracts for 2026 are averaging $99.75, 8.2% above 2025 - with a high of $108.70 for the July contract.