May 11

5/11 – Friday’s monthly jobs report was better than expected, with 115,000 net new jobs created in April and the unemployment rate remaining historically low at 4.3%. The U.S. economy has averaged 63,000 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-Apr). That’s much better than last year’s 9,700 monthly average - but well below the 10-years pre-Covid (2010-2019) when the U.S. averaged 185,000 new jobs per month. And job gains may not be sustainable. During the 5-years preceding the pandemic (2015-2019), the U.S. experienced an average “new hires” rate of 3.8%. We have averaged just 3.3% for the past 9 months – a 12-year low not seen since just after the financial crisis in 2013. Additionally, AI-driven job cuts have arrived, and they are rippling across the tech industry. Amazon is cutting 20,000 jobs; Microsoft 15,000; Dell 12,000; Accenture 11,000; and Meta 8,000. Expect more of the same for the next few years.