June 8

6/8 – Last week, the USDA detected two separate cases (5.6 miles apart) of New World Screwworm (NWS) disease in Texas cattle, the first in the U.S. since the 1960s. NWS has been rampant south of the border, and the U.S. has been closed to Mexican cattle since Nov 2024. Mexico accounted for over 4% of our beef cows in 2024, and the import ban left the U.S. short roughly 1.1M feeders in 2025 - this coming at a time when U.S. cattle inventories are already at a 75-year low. The 12-mile cattle quarantine area in Zavala County is likely to be expanded. If the disease is contained, animals inside the quarantined area would need to be tested prior to shipping or sale. If NWS proves uncontained and more cases are found outside of quarantine, a greater swath of cattle country would be affected. As of last month (pre-NWS) USDA was already projecting beef output would decline by 0.9% in 2026, following a 3.6% decline in 2025.