August 10

8/10 – WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY:

• Friday’s jobs report was a shocker. The U.S. lost a net 23,000 jobs in July – and employment numbers for May and June were revised lower. The economy has averaged 60,500 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-July). That’s much better than last year’s 9,700 monthly average - but still well below the ten years pre-Covid (2010-2019) when the U.S. averaged 185,000 new jobs per month.

• And even this year’s anemic level of job gains may be difficult to maintain. During the five years preceding the pandemic (2015-2019), the U.S. experienced an average “new hires” rate of 3.8%. We have averaged just 3.3% for the past 24 months – a 12-year low not seen since just after the financial crisis in 2013.

• Even so, the unemployment rate is historically low at 4.1%. Boomer retirements, little immigration, and declining U.S. birth rates mean fewer Americans in the workforce – and less need for employment growth.