September 28

9/28 – WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY:

• In its monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Sept 1st were 11.16M head, up 0.7% from a year ago. However, new placements onto feedlots in Aug were 9.2% below last year, and cattle marketings were down 3.3% at 1.52M head - a 30-year low for the month of Aug. Less available cattle has led to higher prices, less demand, and fewer cattle sold (marketed).

• The gradual reopening of the southern border to Mexican cattle imports, as the New World Screwworm outbreak abates, should help ease the supply crisis in 2027.

• Meanwhile, “duty-free” beef from South America (mostly Brazil) has not altered prices. Domestic beef 90% lean trimmings are still over $4/lb, while imported 90s are in the $3.10-$3.30 – about where they were with 26.4% duties imposed. In Sept’s WASDE, the USDA projected a 16.2% increase in imports for the year – with maybe 2% of that coming from additional duty-free imports.