The Biden Administration’s zero-carbon initiative has prompted plans for as many as 35 new biofuel plants coming online by 2024, with renewable diesel production forecast to jump from 60M gallons in 2020 to 5.1B gallons in 2024, consuming 65-75% of total U.S. soy-oil production.
Read MoreAt Oct’s Market Vision Conference, Eric Meyer from HighGround said a declining milk cow herd is curbing milk output. Dairy farmers culled 70,000 milk cows in Aug/Sept and Sept milk output was up just 0.2% from a year ago. Butter prices jumped $.12 over the past month to close at $1.9335/lb on 11/5.
Read MoreRising prices will affect us in so many ways in 2022. Here are some quotes from Market Vision’s Fall Conference. “Rising natural gas prices will escalate home heating costs by 30%, or roughly $200 per month, this winter.” (John Barone, Market Vision).
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said feedlot inventories, at 11.6M head on Oct 1st, were down 1.4% from a year ago. New feedlot placements in Sept were 2.9% below 2020 levels. We are in the 3rd year of a liquidation and contraction cycle for cattle herds that is being compounded by this year’s drought.
Read MoreThe U.S. milk cow herd has declined for 2 straight months, likely the result of higher feed prices. Milk yield per cow in Aug was down 1.3% from July and off 0.1% from a year ago. In last week’s WASDE, the USDA cut its 2021 milk production growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%, and left 2022 unchanged at +1.2%.
Read MoreChicken supplies remain tight, and prices are historically high. But there may be a bit of light at the end of the chicken coop. Slaughter weights for July-Aug-Sept (13 weeks) were 1.25% above a year ago. That’s a good thing because the number of heads slaughtered was down 0.48% for the same period.
Read MoreThe USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report was a mixed bag for prices. Sept 1st corn stocks came in at 1.24B bushels - 69M bushels above pre-report expectations, but still 36% below year-ago levels. While slightly improved, overall corn supplies remain historically tight.
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said feedlot inventories, at 11.23M head on Sept 1, were down 1.4% from a year ago, but still well above pre-report estimates. New feedlot placements in Aug were 2.3% above last year following 2.1% & 7.1% (yoy) declines, respectively, in July & June.
Read MoreAfter slashing 2021/22 corn yield from 179.5 to 174.6 bushels per acre (bpa) in July, the USDA reversed itself in its August WASDE report, raising yield to 176.3 bpa, and pegging corn output at 14.99B bushels. 2021/22 beginning stocks are 70M bushels higher based on lower ethanol use and smaller exports in 2020/21.
Read MoreOn Sept 11, 2001, radical Islamic terrorists took down both of the NYC Trade Towers. It was an unimaginable event. 2,977 lives were lost that day. Here in the NY Metro area, nearly everyone lost someone they knew personally. Every school system in the area had parents who were victims.
Read MoreGround beef prices are sky-high. Consumer demand at the retail and foodservice levels has been strong, plant capacity issues are ongoing and Australian imports have declined significantly. Aussie beef exports to the U.S. year-to-date (through Aug) are down 41% from 2020 and 45% below 2019 levels.
Read MoreBoth the hog slaughter pace and carcass weights are lagging prior years. Pork supplies are tight, and prices are historically high, especially on products requiring the most further processing due to ongoing labor issues. July pork production was 13.6% below a year ago and 7.3% lower than in July 2019.
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said feedlot inventories (at 11.07M head on Aug 1), were down 1.9% from a year ago and 0.3% below 2019 levels. New feedlot placements in July were 8.1% below last year, following a 7.1% year-over-year decline in June.
Read MoreConfidence is starting to crumble as vaccines have hit a resistance wall and Covid Delta variant cases soar. According to a survey of 560 small businesses by the Wall Street Journal and Vistage Worldwide, only 39% of small-business owners now expect U.S. economic conditions to improve in the next 12 months, down from 50% in July and 67% in March.
Read MoreDespite good broiler egg production, the number of chicks being hatched just isn’t growing. Year-to-date (through July) eggs set in incubators are up 2.4% from a year ago and 2.6% above 2019. However, chicks placed for grow-out are just 0.5% above a year ago and 0.1% higher than 2019. And it’s getting worse. July chicks placed was 1.1% below a year ago and 0.7% less than 2019.
Read MoreSoy-oil fundamentals are terrible going forward and that’s predominantly due to energy policy. In the U.S., we put corn-based ethanol into our gasoline and can’t use more than 10% because it is corrosive and will destroy a car’s engine. The Europeans use biodiesel, which does not have a 10% blend wall. Diesel blends can contain up to 100% renewable feedstock.
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said feedlot inventories (at 11.3M head on July 1st), were down 1.3% from a year ago and 2% below 2019 levels. New feedlot placements in June were down 7.1% from last year and 5% below June 2019. Beef demand was red hot in June. Cattle marketings were 2.7% above a year ago and 4% above 2019.
Read MoreIn last week’s WASDE, the USDA said larger corn supplies will more than offset increased exports and feed usage. This year’s crop stats are holding up despite below average precipitation. Last week’s crop progress report was very close to a year ago with 65% of the corn crop rated good-to-excellent; just 8% poor-to-very poor. Corn silking was at 26% vs the same (26%) a year ago and a 5-year average of 30%.
Read MoreWhile chicken prices have backed off a bit, supplies remain tight. Chicken in cold storage on June 1st was down 15% from a year ago. Wings in storage are nearly 20% lower. Total broilers (head) slaughtered for the first 5 months of 2021 are down 2.0% from a year ago and are 0.6% below 2019. That’s not helping wing supplies. However, average bird weights continue to recover, up 0.7% (Jan-May) vs 2020 and 2.7% above 2019.
Read MoreIn the June 25th Cattle on Feed report, the USDA said feedlot inventories (at 11.7M head on June 1st), were up 0.2% from a year ago and the 2nd largest June inventory on record. New feedlot placements in May were down 6.9% from last year and 7.4% below May 2019. Feedlots are full. It’s processing capacity that’s been the issue - but there is some progress.
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