The labor market bounced back in Nov, as workers sidelined by storms and strikes got back to work. The U.S. economy added 227,000 net new jobs in Nov, up from just 36,000 Oct. The unemployment rate (a separate survey) rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Read MoreIt was a great weekend to give thanks for our blessed lives - and to be grateful for being an American. We are coming off a hotly contested but peaceful election. Both election security and transparency reached new heights. That should go a long way toward convincing deniers that elections are legit.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Nov. 1st were 11.99M head, up slightly (+0.3%) from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Oct. were up 5.3%. The jump in placements likely indicates that producers are taking a pass this fall on hold back heifers for potential herd expansion in 2025.
Read MoreIn its November WASDE report, the USDA said the warm/dry late-season conditions helped cut this year's corn crop yield from 183.7 to 183.1 bushels per acre, which led to a drop in 2024/25 ending stocks from 2.00B to 1.94B bushels. As a result, the corn stocks-to-use ratio is down 0.4% - and forecasts for strong export sales suggest a potentially tighter stocks-to-use in 2025.
Read MoreIn early September, the Federal Reserve cut its federal funds rate by a half-point. This past Thursday, the Fed cut rates another quarter point. Conversely, since bottoming at 3.63% on Sept 16, the 10-year treasury yield has soared to 4.31% (11/8). Similarly, the national average for 30-year mortgages rose from 6.08% on Sept 19 to 6.79% last week.
Read MoreOn this election eve, Americans are anxious. According to an American Psychological Assoc. survey, 77% of adults feel stress over the future of the country; 75% think the election could spur violence; half worry about “the end of democracy.” According to a Sept survey from the Univ of Chicago’s Project on Security and Threats:
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Oct 1st were 11.6M head, unchanged from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Sept (down 1.9%) declined for the 2nd straight month, offsetting a 5.8% year-over-year increase in July. While supplies are adequate for current needs, the future is questionable.
Read MoreLast week’s USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook brought both good and bad news. First the good: USDA estimated that Q3 & Q4 beef production will be higher than previously expected, due to a faster pace of slaughter and higher carcass weights.
Read MoreWith beef prices sky-high, chicken is proliferating on menus across the country. That’s putting pressure on poultry producers to step up production more quickly. After struggling with breeder (rooster) fertility problems in 2022 & 2023, the industry finally appears to be turning the corner.
Read MoreOn Friday, the Labor Dept reported that U.S. employers added 245,000 net new jobs in Sept, roughly double what was expected, and that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. The Labor Dept also said Aug job openings rose to 8M, the first increase since May.
Read MoreIn last week’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, the USDA said the U.S. hog inventory, at 76.5M head, is up 0.5% from a year ago. Producers continue to limit herd growth. Hogs being kept for breeding are down 2.2% from last year and farrowing intentions from now through May 2025 are projected to be flat.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Sept 1st were 11.20M head, up 0.6% from a year ago. It was no surprise that new placements onto feedlots in August were down 1.4% following a 5.8% year-over-year increase in July. While supplies are adequate for current seasonal needs, the future is highly questionable.
Read MoreLast week’s CPI report offered a glimmer of hope on inflation. The Consumer Price Index was up just 2.5% (year-over-year) in August, down from highs of 9% two years ago. Unfortunately, it doesn’t feel that way for middle and lower-income Americans, who are getting hammered by increased living costs.
Read MoreIn Friday’s jobs report, the Labor Dept. said U.S. employers added a mediocre 142,000 net new jobs in Aug – and that the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%. The good news is that nothing in the report will dissuade the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates at its next open committee meeting on Sept 17-18.
Read MoreBeef prices are sky-high and look to remain so for the next several years. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on chicken producers, especially with restaurants putting more and more chicken on the menu. Feed prices should help. Corn futures that averaged $6.94 per bushel in 2022 and $5.64 in 2023 are down to $3.78. Soymeal that averaged $440 per hundred short tons in 2022 & 2023 is $311.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Aug 1st were 11.09M head, up 0.3% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in July were up 5.8% and marketings up 7.7% from a year ago. The big, year-over-year differences are the result of producers being able to hold cattle on pasture longer this year due to favorable grass conditions.
Read MoreHighly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been a bit subdued this summer but will likely pick-up this fall when wild birds start migrating again. In last week’s WASDE, the USDA again cut projected 2024 egg output, which has now declined from +1.0% to zero over the past two months. USDA also raised its 2024 forecast for NY large eggs from $1.98 per dozen (on average) to $2.71.
Read MoreBeef prices are sky-high and look to remain so for the next several years. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on chicken producers to step up and fill in that lower-priced protein supply gap. Feed prices should help. Corn futures that averaged $6.94/bushel in 2022 and $5.64 in 2023 are down to $3.76. Soymeal that was $440 per hundred short tons in 2022 & 2023 is $326.
Read MoreLast week, the Labor Dept. said that U.S employers added just 114,000 net new jobs in July – and that the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3%. New unemployment claims were 249,000 for the last week of July, compared to a 2-year average of 218,587 per week for 2022/2023. Stock markets are shaky.
Read MoreThe U.S. became a net oil exporter in 2023. We imported 8.5M barrels per day (bpd) of petroleum products last year, but we exported over 10M – of which 4M bpd was crude oil. Earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that U.S. crude oil output will reach a record-high 13.2M bpd in 2024 and jump to 13.8M in 2025.
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