August 25

8/25 - In Friday’s monthly cattle report, USDA said feedlot inventories on Aug 1st were 10.92M head, down 1.6% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in July were down 6.1%. Mexican cattle imports have been mostly banned from entering the U.S. since Nov 2024 due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease. Mexico accounted for 4% of our beef cows in 2024 and the import ban has (so far) left the U.S. short 900,000+ feeders (100k+/month). Additionally, tariffs - 10% tariffs on Australia and 50% on Brazil - are inflating prices for beef 90s lean trimmings. In last week’s LDP Outlook, the USDA adjusted its projected declines in beef production from -2.9% to -3.9% for 2025, and -1.4% to -1.8% for 2026. USDA projects cattle prices to average $227.06/cwt in 2025 and $243.50 in 2026, up from a previous record-high $187.12/cwt in 2024. Cattle futures closed at $239.95/cwt on Friday (8/22).