September 2

9/2 – It’s a possibility that every other weekly commentary is going to be about beef for the rest of the year. The situation is that dire. The southern border is shut to Mexican cattle imports due to “New World Screwworm” disease. For the 5 years from 2020-2024, the U.S. imported an average of 1.2M head of cattle per year, representing 4%-to-5% of our total beef cow supply. Total imports are just 197,800 head (year-to-date) and will drop to ZERO for the balance of 2025 and all of 2026. This situation is being compounded by 10% tariffs on imported Australian and New Zealand beef, and 50% on Brazilian beef. USDA currently projects cattle prices to average $227.06/cwt in 2025 and $243.50 in 2026, up from a previous record-high $187.12/cwt in 2024. Expect those forecasts to be raised in coming months. Cattle futures hit yet another record high of $243.25/cwt last week and closed at $241.90/cwt on Friday (8/29).