September 15

9/15 – After peaking at 9% in June 2022 (CPI year-over-year), then falling to a low of 2.3% in April 2025, inflation is on the rise again. In last week’s CPI report, the August inflation rate (all goods) was up 2.9%, while core CPI (excludes food & energy) jumped to 3.1%. Of note: consumer coffee prices have soared 20.9% from a year ago and ground beef is up 12.8%. Menu prices continue to escalate with “food away from home” climbing 3.9% year-over-year. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, was +2.6% in July, while core PCE was +2.9%. Given a stated target for 2.0% inflation, a 3% (CPI/PCE) level is where the Fed should be considering raising interest rates. However, given back-to-back dismal employment reports – and intense pressure from the White House – the Fed is likely to lower rates this week (likely by a quarter-point) and put jobs market concerns ahead of inflation worries.