September 22

9/22 - In Friday’s monthly cattle report, USDA said feedlot inventories on Sept 1st were 11.08M head, 1.1% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Aug were down 9.9%. Mexican cattle imports have been banned from entering the U.S. since Nov 2024 due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease. Mexico accounted for 4% of our beef cows in 2024 and the import ban has left the U.S. short roughly a million feeders (100k+/month). No Mexican imports are expected through 2026. Additionally, Brazilian beef 90s lean trimmings imports are currently subject to 76% tariffs: Australia 10%. In last week’s LDP Outlook, the USDA said U.S. beef output will decline by 4.2% in 2025 and drop an additional 1.3% in 2026. USDA projects cattle prices to average $228.56/cwt in 2025 and $248.50 in 2026, up from a previous record-high $187.12/cwt in 2024. Cattle futures closed at $233.57/cwt on Friday (9/19).