September 29

9/29 - In its quarterly report (9/25), the USDA said hog and pig inventories on Sept 1st (74.5M head) were up 1.0% from last quarter (June 1) but 1.3% from below a year ago. Market-hog numbers were down 1.4% from last year and the breeding herd was 1.8% lower. Farrowing intentions for the next half-year (Dec- May) are down 2.9%. The number of pigs per litter (11.82) for the June-Aug quarter were marginally (0.8%) above a year earlier. The declines in breeders and farrowing intentions points to tighter supplies and potentially higher prices in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. In Sept’s WASDE, the USDA projected pork output to decline by 0.8% in 2025 but rebound by 2.9% in 2026. For Jan-July 2025, U.S. pork exports to China were 16% below last year but are recovering. China mostly buys variety meats (such as feet) that help U.S. processors stay profitable. Lean hog futures, at $101.50/cwt (9/26), are 23.7% above year ago levels.