October 26
10/26 – WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY:
In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Oct 1st were 11.16M head, down 0.4% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Sept were 12.1% below last year, and cattle marketings were down 6.6%. Less available cattle has led to higher prices, less demand, and fewer cattle sold (marketed).
The gradual reopening of the southern border to Mexican cattle imports, as the New World Screwworm outbreak abates, should help ease the supply crisis in 2027. Meanwhile, “duty-free” beef from South America (mostly Brazil) has not done much to alter supply or prices.
In Sept’s WASDE, the USDA projected a 17.8% increase in imports for the year – with maybe 2% of that coming from additional duty-free imports. The USDA projects U.S. beef production will decline by 4.6% in 2026, following a 3.6% drop in 2025. The USDA projects cattle prices to average $237.56/cwt in 2026, up 5.9% from 2025.
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