October 19

10/19 – WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY:

  • Both the economy and inflation are heating up. The Commerce Dept raised its U.S. GDP growth estimate for Q1 2026 from 2.1% to 2.5% and revised its Q2 2026 projection from 1.5% to 2.2%. Higher than expected AI investment, booming corporate profits, and strong consumer spending drove the changes.

  • The Consumer Price Index was up 3.7% (year-over-year) in Sept, compared to 3.4% in Aug, and core inflation (excludes food and energy) was up 2.6%. Compared to last year, fuel oil (diesel and heating oil) is up 74.2% and gasoline is 34.2% higher. Meanwhile, consumer favorites like coffee (+7.1%) and ground beef (+5.4%) continue to increase despite already sky-high levels.

  • Freddie Mac says 30-year mortgages are averaging 7.4% vs 6.3% a year ago.

  • Pressure is building on the Fed to raise short-term interest rates. That can come as soon as their next meeting on Oct 27-28, but certainly before year’s end.

Sheena Levi