October 12

10/12 – WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY:

• Before the Iran war, the Middle East was the world’s top diesel exporter, with a 19% market share in 2025. North America followed with 15%, and Russia was third at 11%.

• But diesel shipments from Persian Gulf countries have shrunk to a quarter of their prewar levels. And now, attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure has further reduced diesel exports. At the same time, Ukraine’s attacks have led to export restrictions in Russia. Meanwhile, here in the U.S., diesel supply is being constrained by a lack of refineries. The EIA says U.S. refining capacity will be just 17.9M barrels per day this year, down from a high of 19M in 2020.

• The Iran War has again demonstrated that the fate of the world’s economies is still in the hands of politically volatile Middle Eastern countries. America’s best bet is to follow China’s lead: a gradual transition away from fossil fuels that both reduces global demand and brings prices lower.