October 5

10/5 – WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY:

  • In its quarterly report, the USDA said that all hog and pig inventories in the U.S. on September 1st (74.30M head) were down 1.5% below a year ago. Hogs kept for breeding (5.88M head) are 1.0% below year-ago levels and the lowest in 12 years. Sows farrowing in the Jun-Aug quarter were 2.7% below last year. Looking forward, farrowing intentions for the next 6 months (Sep’26 through Feb’27) are 2.5% below the same year-ago period.

  • The report would be bullish for prices, except for the fact that slack demand is offsetting the lower hog supplies. In Sept’s WASDE, the USDA cut pork exports from 2.9% (above a year ago) to 2.0%. Domestically, the USDA forecasts 2026 pork consumption at 49.4 lb per person, down from highs of 52.1 pre-pandemic in 2019. Waning foodservice breakfast sales have contributed to reduced bacon usage.

  • Lean hog futures at $77.87/cwt (10/2) are running 7.8% below year-ago levels.

Sheena Levi