November 2

11/2 – WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY:

• A super El Niño has arrived. Aside from battering California’s coastline, El Niño could affect numerous global commodities with either drought or excess precipitation in 2027. The top crops in its crosshairs are coffee from Brazil/Vietnam, African cocoa, sugar from India, Indonesian palm oil, and Australian wheat.

• The danger for 2027 is that this El Niño will be the 4th global supply shock in just 6 years. The first came during the pandemic when production facilities and trade shut down - and took forever to get back online. The 2nd came in 2022 when war cut Ukrainian wheat exports along with diesel and natural gas from Russia. This year (#3) the Iran war has affected fertilizers and diesel for farm production.

• Now, with global food prices already sky-high, political unrest is likely to follow. In 2010, food supply issues and the aftermath of the financial crisis triggered protests and riots – and led to regime change in multiple countries.