June 29

6/29 - WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY:

• In last week’s quarterly report, the USDA said that all hog and pig inventories in the U.S. on June 1st (73.66M head) were roughly even with a year ago and 0.4% below last quarter (March 1). A 0.1% increase (year-over-year) in market hogs and record-high pigs per litter (11.87) are likely offset by a 1.2% decrease in the breeding herd. Farrowing intentions going forward are all 1%-to-2% below year ago. Overall, the report was neutral for pork/hog prices.

• In June’s WASDE, the USDA projected U.S. pork output to increase by 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively, for 2026 and 2027. But those supply increases will be partially offset by 4.0% (2026) and 1.1% (2027) growth in export tonnage.

• Lean hog futures averaged $84.95/cwt in 2024 and $92.15 in 2025 (+8.5%). First half 2026 futures ($92.21) combined with 2nd-half forward contracts (averaging $84.49) point to a projected $88.35/cwt lean hog price for 2026 – down 4.1% from 2025.