July 6

7/6 - WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY:

• Last week’s jobs report was “meh”, with 57,000 net new jobs created in June and the unemployment rate remaining historically low at 4.2%. The U.S. economy has averaged 92,000 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-June). That’s much better than last year’s 9,700 monthly average - but still well below the ten years pre-Covid (2010-2019) when the U.S. averaged 185,000 new jobs per month.

• Job gains may be difficult to maintain. During the five years preceding the pandemic (2015-2019), the U.S. experienced an average “new hires” rate of 3.8%. We have averaged just 3.3% for the past year – a 12-year low not seen since just after the financial crisis in 2013.

• And then there is the double-edged AI disruption. Tech companies, most citing AI gains, cut 139,156 jobs in the first half of 2026. On the flip side, corporate profits (partially AI-driven) were 12.2% of U.S. gross domestic income in Q1, the highest since the early 1950s.