July 13

7/13 - WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY:

• In Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA lowered its 2026 beef production forecast from 2.2% to 2.7% below a year ago. That comes on top of a 3.6% decline in beef output in 2025. The beef cattle herd is record small and the New World Screwworm threat appears to be growing. Over 30 cases have now been confirmed in Texas cattle, although the true number of cases is thought to be much larger. Most alarming has been the lack of information from the USDA and the agency’s inability to get its arms around containing the outbreak.

• On the bright side, new WASDE numbers show there will be more poultry than previously expected. The USDA lifted projected 2026 broiler production from 2.9% to 3.2% above last year and turkey from 4.0% to 4.4%.

• And a 2.1% increase in milk production led the USDA to slash its projected butter and cheese price forecasts by $.04-to-$.05 per pound for both 2026 and 2027.