In July’s Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook, the USDA said total red meat and poultry output in the first half (H1) of 2019 was 1.3% above that of a year ago. Beef output was up just 0.2% in H1. More heifers in the slaughter mix (up 7.2% in H1) helped pull down slaughter weights and indicates that the cattle expansion cycle is ending.
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, the USDA said new placements onto feedlots in June were down 2.3% from a year ago, but that the July 1st feedlot inventory, at 11.49M head, was still 1.8% above last year. May/June have traditionally been seasonally large placements months, as feeders move off wheat pasture in the Southern Plains.
Read MoreRecord rainfall this year has wreaked havoc with crop planting and with USDA forecasting. The June 28 acreage report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) pegged 2019 corn output at 13.9B bushels vs. the trade’s expectations of 13.3B.
Read MoreDairy prices are bullish at a time of year when the seasonal spring milk “flush” is usually tempering prices. May milk output was down 0.4% from a year ago – and tighter milk supplies are having an adverse effect on dairy products production. Butter output in May was 4.2% below a year ago.
Read MoreIn Friday’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs report, the USDA confirmed large U.S. pork supplies. Productivity jumped in the March-May quarter, with the number of pigs per litter up 3.5% from a year ago – roughly triple the pre-report estimates.
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, the USDA said new placements onto feedlots in May were down 2.8% from a year ago, but that the June 1st feedlot inventory, at 11.74M head, was still 1.6% above last year. May has traditionally been a month for seasonally large placements as feeders begin moving off wheat pasture in the Southern Plains.
Read MoreRecord rainfall has delayed planting almost beyond hope this year. As of 6/10, only 83% of the corn crop was planted, compared to 99% a year ago and a 5-year average of 99%. Five-to-nine million acres of corn could go unplanted this year. That would represent a 6-to-10% drop in corn acres vs. planting intentions.
Read MoreWhile rain-delayed Midwest crops and China’s hog situation have dominated the commodity news, butter prices have been quietly creeping higher. U.S. milk supplies are tightening due to lower cow herd numbers and cream for butter processing is reported to be short in the Midwest.
Read MoreRecord rainfall has delayed planting almost beyond hope this year. Last week’s crop progress report was more of the same. The corn crop is 58% planted vs. 90% last year and a 5-yr average of 90%. Soybeans are 29% planted vs. 74% a year ago. With the calendar turning to June, farmers are out of time.
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, the USDA said new placements onto feedlots in April were up 8.7% from a year ago. The May 1st feedlot inventory at 11.8M head was 2.2% above a year ago (highest May number since the data series began in 1996) - partly driven by an increase in the number of heifers (breeding stock) being sent to slaughter.
Read MoreOn Friday, the U.S. finally reached a deal with Canada and Mexico to lift U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, while also confirming Canada and Mexico would remove tariffs on a wide range of U.S. goods, including pork and cheese.
Read MoreIn Friday’s WASDE, the USDA released its first projections for next year. The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower exports, and larger stocks. Wheat prices for 2019/20 are projected at $4.70/bu - down 9.6% from $5.20 for 2018/19.
Read MoreBeef middle meats and ground beef are in the midst of their annual seasonal price run-up ahead of the big 3 grilling holidays – Memorial Day (5/27), Father’s Day (6/16) and July 4th. So far this year, #180 choice boneless strips at $8.17/lb are up 54.7% after starting the year a $5.28 – and are currently 4.5% above a year ago.
Read MoreIn April’s Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook, the USDA (again) dropped its first-half 2019 broiler output forecast to 21.16B pounds, now up just 0.4% from a year ago. Looking at Q1 data, the total number of (broiler) head slaughtered was up 0.3% from a year ago, while YOY slaughter weights were marginally negative.
Read MoreIn Thursday’s Cattle on Feed Report, the USDA said new placements onto feedlots in March were up 4.8% from a year ago. The April 1st feedlot inventory at 11.96M head was 2.0% above a year ago and the highest April inventory since the data series began in 1996.
Read MoreChina’s African Swine Fever just keeps going from bad to worse. On Thursday, Rabobank said that up to 200 million Chinese pigs could be culled or die as result of the disease. The drop would drag down China’s 2019 pork output by 30% from a year ago – a decline of 16 million metric tons.
Read MoreIt’s that time of year when refiners begin transitioning to more expensive, summer-grade fuel. This year’s seasonal price increases will get an extra boost as a result of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, rising crude oil prices and Midwest flooding that has impeded the production and distribution of ethanol.
Read MoreIn Thursday’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, the USDA confirmed very large U.S. pork supplies. As of March 1st, total hog numbers and the market hog inventory were both up 2.1% from a year ago.
Read MoreIn Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, the USDA said new placements onto feedlots in Feb were up 2.2% from a year ago, surprising private analysts whose consensus forecast was for a 3.8% decrease. The March 1st feedlot inventory at 11.8M head was 0.7% above a year ago, while most agricultural economists had expected the first monthly decline since Dec 2016.
Read MoreIn last week’s Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook, the USDA highlighted strong U.S. protein exports in 2018 driven by “domestic production increases and favorable foreign demand.” The USDA reported 2018 beef exports up 10.3%; pork +4.2%; broiler +4.1% and dairy products +9.5%. Eggs, down 6.1% and turkey -1.8% were the notable exceptions.
Read More
^TOP