Last week’s CPI report was not pretty. The consumer price index for May was 4.2% above a year ago, up from 2.4% in February. Gasoline was (again) the big driver in May, up 40.5%, while fuel oil (home heating oil and the same distillate as diesel) is up 58.9%.
Read MoreLast week, the USDA detected two separate cases (5.6 miles apart) of New World Screwworm (NWS) disease in Texas cattle, the first in the U.S. since the 1960s. NWS has been rampant south of the border, and the U.S. has been closed to Mexican cattle since Nov 2024.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on May 1st were 11.58M head, up 1.8% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in April were 5.5% above last year. Unfortunately, the reason for the increase was ranchers moving feeders off pasture and onto feedlots due to drought.
Read MoreIn last week’s WASDE report, the USDA pegged 2026/27 soy-oil usage for biofuel at 17.8B pounds – 54.6% of total soy-oil production for the crop year. USDA also raised its 2025/26 projected soy-oil price from $.5900/lb to $.6300; and pegged 2026/27 at $.7000/lb. Soy-oil futures are being driven primarily by biofuel demand.
Read MoreFriday’s monthly jobs report was better than expected, with 115,000 net new jobs created in April and the unemployment rate remaining historically low at 4.3%. The U.S. economy has averaged 63,000 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-Apr).
Read MoreTwenty percent of the world trade in liquid natural gas (LNG) must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. With the Strait blocked, natural gas futures in Europe are up over 40%, and in Asia it’s closer 80%. But here in the U.S., prices have plummeted.
Read MoreSpring planting season is here, but this year’s U.S. corn crop will likely incur some collateral damage from the war in Iran. Middle Eastern countries produce over 40% of globally traded nitrogen fertilizers, especially urea and ammonia-based fertilizers. Much of that production (like oil) is trapped in the Persian Gulf.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on April 1st were 11.58M head, down 0.5% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in March were 7.2% below last year. New world screwworm disease in Mexico continues to show no signs of abating.
Read MoreFriday’s CPI report may be the first hint of big trouble ahead. The consumer price index for March was 3.3% above a year ago, up from 2.4% in February. Gasoline was the big driver in March, up 18.9%. Taking out the food and fuel categories, the core CPI was up 2.6%.
Read MoreThe employment market is not dead yet. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers added 178,000 net new jobs in March, after averaging just 17,000 per month for Jan/Feb. Additionally, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.4 to 4.3%.
Read MoreIn its quarterly report, the USDA said that all hog and pig inventories in the U.S. on March 1st (74.3M head) were 0.4% higher than a year ago but 1.5% below last quarter (Dec 1). A 0.6% increase (year-over-year) in market hogs and a 2.1% jump in pigs per litter, offset by a 1.5% decrease in the breeding herd…
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Mar 1st were 11.55M head, 0.2% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Feb were up 3.7%. In a sign that high prices might be dampening beef demand, cattle marketings in Feb were 6.8% below a year ago.
Read MoreA big driver of soy-oil prices is biofuel demand. On 6/13/25, the EPA released a new Renewable Fuel Standard mandating a 2B gallon jump in renewable diesel production to 5.61B gallons in 2026. At that time, the EPA slashed the Renewable Identification Numbers on imported biofuel feedstocks…
Read MoreWar in the Middle East is never pretty for energy prices. Crude oil futures, which spent Jan/Feb in the $50s, are now over $90 per barrel. AAA says the U.S. average for regular gas has jumped from $2.90 to $3.41 per gallon over the past month; diesel from $3.65 to $4.51. The country is not in danger regarding oil supplies.
Read MoreAmidst the usual commodity doom and gloom, coffee could be a bright spot. Coffee futures prices (ICE Exchange) were $2.93/lb when 50% tariffs were imposed on Brazil in Aug 2025. That sent coffee soaring to a record-high of $4.32 by Nov.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Feb 1st were 11.51M head, 1.8% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Jan were down 4.7%. In a sign that high prices might be dampening beef demand, cattle marketings in Jan were 13.0% below a year ago.
Read MoreTwo reports released last week have us cautiously optimistic. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. economy added 130,000 net new jobs in Jan – after averaging just 59,000 per month for all of 2025. New jobs are still hard to come by. In Dec, there were just 6.5M open positions, down from 7.5M at the end of 2024.
Read MoreWhile the real numbers aren’t in yet, it’s estimated that roughly 1.5B chicken wings were consumed on Super Bowl Sunday. At an average of 9 wings per pound, that’s 167M pounds of wings. With wing prices at $.69/lb below a year ago on Friday (2/6), that’s a potential cost reduction of over $100M for the day.
Read MoreIn Friday’s semi-annual cattle inventory report, the USDA said all cattle and calves in the U.S. on Jan 1st (on pasture and in feedlots) totaled 86.2M head, down slightly (-0.3%) from 86.5M a year ago. Numbers across all categories confirm that 2026 will be another challenging year for beef supplies.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Jan 1st were 11.45M head, 3.2% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Dec were down 5.4%. The biggest issue continues to be a lack of Mexican feeder cattle imports, which have been banned since Nov 2024 due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease.
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