The Farmer First Fuel Incentives Act has been reintroduced in Congress as a bipartisan bill and is likely to be passed into law. It updates/restricts eligibility for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit to renewable fuels made only from domestically sourced feedstocks.
Read MoreIn Thursday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on April 1st were 11.83M head, down 1.6% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in March were down 5.2% from a year ago. The U.S. imported 1.2M head of feeder cattle from Mexico last year before imports were halted on Nov 25, 2024, due to “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreDespite the 90-day reprieve on most reciprocal tariffs, the trade scenario has gone from bad to worse, given the 145% (as of 4/13) tariffs on Chinese imports and 125% Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods. The top 5 import categories from China in 2024 were:
Read MoreThe toughest thing about evaluating the new tariffs is trying to determine whether they are a temporary negotiating tool – or a more permanent revenue-raising strategy. The President is indicting both as tariff goals, so the effects might take a while to play out on a country-by-country basis.
Read MoreIn its quarterly report (3/27), the USDA said that U.S. inventories of hogs and pigs on March 1st (74.5M head) were down 1.7% from last quarter (12/1/24) and 0.2% below a year ago. Market-hog numbers were also down 0.2% from a year ago and the breeding herd was 0.6% lower.
Read MoreIn Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on March 1st were 11.84M head, down 2.2% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Feb were down 17.7% from a year ago. The U.S. imported 1.2M head of feeder cattle from Mexico last year before imports were halted on Nov 25, 2024, due to “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreSince the last trade war with China in 2017/2018, Brazil has increased its share of Chinese soybean imports from 62% to 71%, while U.S. share has declined from 30% to 22%. That’s mostly because of the strength of the U.S. dollar vs the Brazilian Real (making Brazilian soybeans cheaper) but also due to a Chinese shift away from reliance on the U.S. after the last tariff dust-up.
Read MoreChina’s retaliatory tariffs are set to take effect today. On the agricultural side, they include 15% on U.S. corn and wheat; 10% on soybeans. During the 2018/2019 trade war with China, U.S. agricultural exports plummeted, with losses estimated at $25B.
Read MoreHere we go again. Barring a reprieve today, 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will go into effect on March 4 (tomorrow). Trump cited ongoing concerns about the influx of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl. Both Canada and Mexico are expected to respond with retaliatory measures.
Read MoreIn Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Feb 1st were 11.72M head, down 0.7% from a year ago. The U.S. imported 1.2M head of feeder cattle from Mexico last year before imports were halted on Nov 25, 2024, due to the “new world screwworm” disease. Mexico accounted for 4% of our 28M beef cows in 2024.
Read MoreOne big worry for economists trying to handicap Trump Administration initiatives is how tariffs, deportations, and potential tax cuts will affect consumer prices and overall inflation. Last week, the Consumer Price Index for January was reported up 3.0% from a year ago. Food away from home (+3.4%) and shelter (+4.4) were two of the larger year-over-year increases (again).
Read MoreU.S. milk production was down 0.5% vs a year ago in Dec, following a 0.4% decline in Nov. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in California dairy cows is the main reason. Milk output in CA (20% of total U.S.) was down 8% in Nov/Dec vs a year ago. HPAI reduces a cow’s ability to produce milk - and milk from cows with HPAI must be taken off the market.
Read MoreOn Saturday, Feb 1, President Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports. The most immediate effect on the restaurant industry, particularly at this time of year, will be on fruits and vegetables. The U.S. imported an estimated $22B+ in produce from Mexico last year. Tomatoes, avocados, cucumbers (pickles), jalapenos, bell peppers, and limes could present some of the biggest immediate cost issues.
Read MoreIn Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Jan 1st were 11.82M head, down 0.9% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Dec were down 3.7%. Mexican feeder cattle imports were halted on 11/25/24 due to “new world screwworm.” The situation remains unresolved, which will leave the U.S. short roughly 300,000 feeders by Feb 1.
Read MoreDec’s Consumer Price Index was up 2.9% from a year ago. Food away from home (+3.6%) and shelter (+4.6) were two of the larger year-over-year increases. On a monthly basis, gas prices in Dec were 4.4% higher than Nov, but still 3.4% below a year ago. The slight uptick in inflation comes on the heels of a robust jobs report.
Read MoreAvian flu appears to be rampant this winter. From a state of emergency in California (before the fires), to a reemergence in the Midwest in December, to new east coast outbreaks in North Carolina and Delaware, every flyway in the country is transporting Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza or HPAI via wild bird migration. The egg industry is by far the most affected.
Read MoreIn its quarterly report on 12/23/24, the USDA said that total U.S. inventories of hogs & pigs on Dec 1st (75.8M head) were 0.5% above a year ago. Market-ready hogs were also up 0.5% and the breeding herd was marginally (0.1%) higher. The number of pigs per liter for the Sep-Nov quarter were record-high at 11.92, up 2.3% from a year earlier.
Read More‘Twas the night after Christmas, and down at Mar-a-Lago, the Donald was scarfing Big Macs and gelato. Vendettas were hung by the chimney with care, in hopes that indictments soon would be there. When up on the roof there was such a clatter, he sent Elon up to see what was the matter.
Read MoreIn Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Dec 1st were 11.98M head, down 0.3% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Nov were down 3.7%. With Mexican feeder cattle imports halted on 11/25 due to “new world screwworm,” placements are expected to drop further in coming months.
Read MoreLast week, Michael’s Foods (the country’s largest liquid egg supplier) announced that it lost 4.5M egg layers in Iowa, or 12% of their total capacity, to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza or HPAI. Michael’s is still recovering from losing 5.7M birds (14% of total) in May 2024 and 4.2M birds (10% of total) in Dec 2023.
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