After peaking at 9% in June 2022 (CPI year-over-year), then falling to a low of 2.3% in April 2025, inflation is on the rise again. In last week’s CPI report, the August inflation rate (all goods) was up 2.9%, while core CPI (excludes food & energy) jumped to 3.1%.
Read MoreFriday’s monthly jobs report was abysmal. U.S. employers added just 22,000 net new jobs in August. Additionally, June figures were (again) revised lower to a negative 13,000. The employment economy had been in cruise control, adding 168,000 net new jobs per month in 2024 and 123,000 per month for the first 4 months of 2025.
Read MoreIt’s a possibility that every other weekly commentary is going to be about beef for the rest of the year. The situation is that dire. The southern border is shut to Mexican cattle imports due to “New World Screwworm” disease.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, USDA said feedlot inventories on Aug 1st were 10.92M head, down 1.6% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in July were down 6.1%. Mexican cattle imports have been mostly banned from entering the U.S. since Nov 2024 due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreAfter peaking at 9% in June 2022 (CPI year-over-year), then falling to a low of 2.3% in April, inflation appears to be on the rise again. In last week’s CPI report, the July inflation rate for all goods was steady at 2.7%, while core CPI (excludes food & energy) jumped to 3.1%.
Read MoreOn Aug 6, the U.S. slapped 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, including coffee. As a result, coffee futures, which hit all-time record highs of $4.32/lb this past Feb, then slumped to $2.80 in early July, are now back over $3 per pound ($3.09 on 8/8).
Read MoreU.S. employers added just 73,000 net new jobs in July, while May and June job numbers were revised sharply lower. But with the unemployment rate at a historically low 4.2%, these are the kinds of job numbers many economists expected for 2025. It’s hard to continue to add new jobs in a full employment economy.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, USDA said feedlot inventories on July 1st were 11.12M head, down 1.6% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in June were down 7.9%. In May, the USDA (again) shut down the southern border to Mexican cattle imports due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreOn June 13, the EPA released a new Renewable Fuel Standard proposal that mandates a 2B+ gallon jump in renewable diesel production to 5.61B gallons in 2026. Additionally, the EPA slashed the Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) on imported biofuel feedstocks (like used cooking oil from China) by 50%.
Read MoreToday is the day. On April 14, the International Trade Administration (division of the U.S. Department of Commerce) announced the U.S. would exit the 1996 Tomato Suspension Agreement with Mexico in 90 days (on July 14) if a new agreement was not reached.
Read MoreGrilling season lit a fire under beef prices, burgers in particular. Lean beef trimmings (90s) prices moved above $4 per pound for the first time ever on June 26 and closed at $4.11 on July 3, 9.3% above a year ago.
Read MoreIn last week’s quarterly report, the USDA said that U.S. inventories of hogs and pigs on June 1st (at 75.1M head) were up 1.7% from last quarter (Mar 1st) and 0.3% above a year ago. Market-hog numbers were also up slightly (0.4%) from a year ago and the breeding herd was 0.5% lower.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, USDA said feedlot inventories on June 1st were 11.44M head, down 1.2% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in May were down 7.8%. In May, the USDA (again) shut down the southern border to Mexican cattle imports due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreOn Friday, the Trump administration released a Renewable Fuel Standard proposal that would mandate a record 24.02B gallons of biofuels be blended in 2026, with renewable diesel seeing a 2B+ gallon jump to 5.61B gallons in 2026, and 5.86B in 2027.
Read MoreAccording to the CDC’s database, the U.S. has lost 60.75M commercial table egg layers and pullets due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) since mid-Oct 2024. There were 312M table egg layers in the U.S. on Nov 1, 2024 – so we’ve lost 19.5% of the flock this Winter/Spring.
Read MoreThe chicken vs. burger dilemma that has been ongoing in QSR for a few years now is likely to intensify this year and next. As milk production begins to expand, there will be fewer slaughter cows and a potentially tighter supply of domestic 90s lean beef trimmings. A 10% tariff on Australian beef 90s further adds to ground beef cost - which is showing no signs of declining over the next 2-to-3 years.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on May 1st were 11.38M head, down 1.5% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in April were down 2.6% from a year ago and the fewest in 5 years. On May 11, the USDA (again) shut down the southern border to Mexican cattle imports due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreLast week’s WASDE report gave the USDA’s first look at 2026. Least surprising was that beef output is headed lower, with a 2.1% drop this year and another 4.8% decline in 2026. Cattle prices are projected to average $214.51/cwt in 2025 and $223.00 in 2026, up from an already record-high $187.12/cwt in 2024.
Read MoreIncome-over-feed costs for dairy farmers were record high in Q4 2024, incenting cow retention and milk production increases that should persist through Q2 2025. Cheese output was up 1.4% year-over-year in March. Rising output and weak domestic demand have helped tame cheese prices.
Read MoreWhile rumors swirl of potential negotiations between the U.S. and China, for now, 145% tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place. Can the U.S. survive without China? Eighty container ships were cancelled in April. Those are Covid era numbers.
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