On Friday, the Trump administration released a Renewable Fuel Standard proposal that would mandate a record 24.02B gallons of biofuels be blended in 2026, with renewable diesel seeing a 2B+ gallon jump to 5.61B gallons in 2026, and 5.86B in 2027.
Read MoreAccording to the CDC’s database, the U.S. has lost 60.75M commercial table egg layers and pullets due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) since mid-Oct 2024. There were 312M table egg layers in the U.S. on Nov 1, 2024 – so we’ve lost 19.5% of the flock this Winter/Spring.
Read MoreThe chicken vs. burger dilemma that has been ongoing in QSR for a few years now is likely to intensify this year and next. As milk production begins to expand, there will be fewer slaughter cows and a potentially tighter supply of domestic 90s lean beef trimmings. A 10% tariff on Australian beef 90s further adds to ground beef cost - which is showing no signs of declining over the next 2-to-3 years.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on May 1st were 11.38M head, down 1.5% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in April were down 2.6% from a year ago and the fewest in 5 years. On May 11, the USDA (again) shut down the southern border to Mexican cattle imports due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreLast week’s WASDE report gave the USDA’s first look at 2026. Least surprising was that beef output is headed lower, with a 2.1% drop this year and another 4.8% decline in 2026. Cattle prices are projected to average $214.51/cwt in 2025 and $223.00 in 2026, up from an already record-high $187.12/cwt in 2024.
Read MoreIncome-over-feed costs for dairy farmers were record high in Q4 2024, incenting cow retention and milk production increases that should persist through Q2 2025. Cheese output was up 1.4% year-over-year in March. Rising output and weak domestic demand have helped tame cheese prices.
Read MoreWhile rumors swirl of potential negotiations between the U.S. and China, for now, 145% tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place. Can the U.S. survive without China? Eighty container ships were cancelled in April. Those are Covid era numbers.
Read MoreThe Farmer First Fuel Incentives Act has been reintroduced in Congress as a bipartisan bill and is likely to be passed into law. It updates/restricts eligibility for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit to renewable fuels made only from domestically sourced feedstocks.
Read MoreIn Thursday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on April 1st were 11.83M head, down 1.6% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in March were down 5.2% from a year ago. The U.S. imported 1.2M head of feeder cattle from Mexico last year before imports were halted on Nov 25, 2024, due to “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreDespite the 90-day reprieve on most reciprocal tariffs, the trade scenario has gone from bad to worse, given the 145% (as of 4/13) tariffs on Chinese imports and 125% Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods. The top 5 import categories from China in 2024 were:
Read MoreThe toughest thing about evaluating the new tariffs is trying to determine whether they are a temporary negotiating tool – or a more permanent revenue-raising strategy. The President is indicting both as tariff goals, so the effects might take a while to play out on a country-by-country basis.
Read MoreIn its quarterly report (3/27), the USDA said that U.S. inventories of hogs and pigs on March 1st (74.5M head) were down 1.7% from last quarter (12/1/24) and 0.2% below a year ago. Market-hog numbers were also down 0.2% from a year ago and the breeding herd was 0.6% lower.
Read MoreIn Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on March 1st were 11.84M head, down 2.2% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Feb were down 17.7% from a year ago. The U.S. imported 1.2M head of feeder cattle from Mexico last year before imports were halted on Nov 25, 2024, due to “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreSince the last trade war with China in 2017/2018, Brazil has increased its share of Chinese soybean imports from 62% to 71%, while U.S. share has declined from 30% to 22%. That’s mostly because of the strength of the U.S. dollar vs the Brazilian Real (making Brazilian soybeans cheaper) but also due to a Chinese shift away from reliance on the U.S. after the last tariff dust-up.
Read MoreChina’s retaliatory tariffs are set to take effect today. On the agricultural side, they include 15% on U.S. corn and wheat; 10% on soybeans. During the 2018/2019 trade war with China, U.S. agricultural exports plummeted, with losses estimated at $25B.
Read MoreHere we go again. Barring a reprieve today, 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will go into effect on March 4 (tomorrow). Trump cited ongoing concerns about the influx of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl. Both Canada and Mexico are expected to respond with retaliatory measures.
Read MoreIn Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Feb 1st were 11.72M head, down 0.7% from a year ago. The U.S. imported 1.2M head of feeder cattle from Mexico last year before imports were halted on Nov 25, 2024, due to the “new world screwworm” disease. Mexico accounted for 4% of our 28M beef cows in 2024.
Read MoreOne big worry for economists trying to handicap Trump Administration initiatives is how tariffs, deportations, and potential tax cuts will affect consumer prices and overall inflation. Last week, the Consumer Price Index for January was reported up 3.0% from a year ago. Food away from home (+3.4%) and shelter (+4.4) were two of the larger year-over-year increases (again).
Read MoreU.S. milk production was down 0.5% vs a year ago in Dec, following a 0.4% decline in Nov. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in California dairy cows is the main reason. Milk output in CA (20% of total U.S.) was down 8% in Nov/Dec vs a year ago. HPAI reduces a cow’s ability to produce milk - and milk from cows with HPAI must be taken off the market.
Read MoreOn Saturday, Feb 1, President Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports. The most immediate effect on the restaurant industry, particularly at this time of year, will be on fruits and vegetables. The U.S. imported an estimated $22B+ in produce from Mexico last year. Tomatoes, avocados, cucumbers (pickles), jalapenos, bell peppers, and limes could present some of the biggest immediate cost issues.
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