A big driver of soy-oil prices is biofuel demand. On 6/13/25, the EPA released a new Renewable Fuel Standard mandating a 2B gallon jump in renewable diesel production to 5.61B gallons in 2026. At that time, the EPA slashed the Renewable Identification Numbers on imported biofuel feedstocks…
Read MoreWar in the Middle East is never pretty for energy prices. Crude oil futures, which spent Jan/Feb in the $50s, are now over $90 per barrel. AAA says the U.S. average for regular gas has jumped from $2.90 to $3.41 per gallon over the past month; diesel from $3.65 to $4.51. The country is not in danger regarding oil supplies.
Read MoreAmidst the usual commodity doom and gloom, coffee could be a bright spot. Coffee futures prices (ICE Exchange) were $2.93/lb when 50% tariffs were imposed on Brazil in Aug 2025. That sent coffee soaring to a record-high of $4.32 by Nov.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Feb 1st were 11.51M head, 1.8% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Jan were down 4.7%. In a sign that high prices might be dampening beef demand, cattle marketings in Jan were 13.0% below a year ago.
Read MoreTwo reports released last week have us cautiously optimistic. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. economy added 130,000 net new jobs in Jan – after averaging just 59,000 per month for all of 2025. New jobs are still hard to come by. In Dec, there were just 6.5M open positions, down from 7.5M at the end of 2024.
Read MoreWhile the real numbers aren’t in yet, it’s estimated that roughly 1.5B chicken wings were consumed on Super Bowl Sunday. At an average of 9 wings per pound, that’s 167M pounds of wings. With wing prices at $.69/lb below a year ago on Friday (2/6), that’s a potential cost reduction of over $100M for the day.
Read MoreIn Friday’s semi-annual cattle inventory report, the USDA said all cattle and calves in the U.S. on Jan 1st (on pasture and in feedlots) totaled 86.2M head, down slightly (-0.3%) from 86.5M a year ago. Numbers across all categories confirm that 2026 will be another challenging year for beef supplies.
Read MoreIn Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Jan 1st were 11.45M head, 3.2% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Dec were down 5.4%. The biggest issue continues to be a lack of Mexican feeder cattle imports, which have been banned since Nov 2024 due to an outbreak of “new world screwworm” disease.
Read MoreShell egg prices (USDA, Northeast, large), which averaged record highs of $8.26/dozen for the month of February last year, have dropped to 7-year lows of $.68/dozen. But, winter has arrived, wild birds are migrating, and avian flu (HPAI) could again rear its ugly head.
Read MoreFriday’s jobs report brought some good news: the unemployment rate dropped from 4.5% (revised) to 4.4%. The bad news: the U.S. economy added just 50,000 net new jobs in Dec. In 2025, we averaged just 59,000 net new jobs per month.
Read MoreIn its quarterly report, the USDA said that hog and pig inventories on Dec 1 (75.55M head) were 0.6% higher than a year ago and slightly above last quarter (+0.3%). An 0.8% increase (year-over-year) in market hogs and a 0.9% decrease in the breeding herd were both above expectations and modestly bearish for prices.
Read MoreThe U.S. cattle supply just keeps going from bad to worse. In December’s cattle report (12/19/25), the USDA said feedlot inventories on Dec 1st were 11.73M head, 2.1% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in November were down 11.2%.
Read MoreWith no government data available, the Federal Reserve was flying blind when it lowered the federal funds interest rate by ¼ percentage point in late Oct. The Fed is still blind, given delayed or incomplete CPI and unemployment data – but again it lowered rates by ¼ percentage point last week.
Read MoreThe country is literally awash in milk. October milk output was up 3.7% from a year ago - the 10th consecutive monthly increase and the 3rd straight month of more than 3%. Unfortunately, dairy market intelligence is scarce.
Read MoreAs mentioned last week, the President removed the remaining 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee, which pre-tariff accounted for one-third of all U.S. supplies. While tariff removal should eventually be bearish for prices, coffee is not in free fall yet.
Read MoreIn its first cattle report in two months, USDA said feedlot inventories on Nov 1st were 11.71M head, 2.2% below a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Oct were down 10.0%. The cattle supply situation continues to deteriorate with no end in sight.
Read MoreOn Friday, Trump rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including coffee, beef, bananas, and orange juice. The new trade deals will eliminate tariffs on most food imports from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador. But don’t get too excited. Brazil is still the 800lb gorilla in the room,
Read MoreEgg prices (large) hit record highs earlier this year, averaging $8.26/dozen in February – then dropped steadily to a 2-year low of $1.69 in October. But don’t get lulled to sleep. Fall has arrived, birds are migrating, and avian flu is back in the news.
Read MoreLast week, the Federal Reserve (as expected) lowered its federal funds interest rate by ¼ percentage point. What was unexpected was that Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that another ¼ point cut in Dec was not a sure thing.
Read MoreOn Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a shutdown-delayed CPI report, showing a less-than-feared, 3.0% (year-over-year) increase in consumer prices. While the rate is a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, flagging U.S. job growth means that the Fed is likely to continue reducing interest rates –
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